Who's the Trump VP Pick? Latest Odds for Every Shortlist Candidate.

27/03/2024 23:34

In a typical presidential-election year, we'd currently be in the thick of primary season. But since the 2024 election will be a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, people with an unhealthy addiction to political drama are already turning their attention to the race to be Trump's running mate.

This is yet another aspect of the 2024 race where the normal rules don't quite apply. Candidates typically want a potential vice-president who can "balance" the ticket demographically, ideologically, or geographically. Even Trump succumbed to this thinking in 2016: Mike Pence got the gig because he was a boring, midwestern, ultraconservative Christian with some governing experience — basically the opposite of the erratic, boorish New York TV personality. But this concession to the RNC ultimately backfired (in Trump's mind) because Pence wouldn't participate in his January 6 coup attempt.

Now that Trump's GOP takeover is complete, he's free to pick anyone he wants. And he'll probably put a lot of stock in personal loyalty and who has "the look" (he's known to base hiring decisions on whether candidates are "out of central casting"). This is, obviously, very creepy and inappropriate. But it's something you have to consider when trying to predict Trump's VP pick.

It's unclear when Trump will announce his VP choice, but it could be months away; he revealed Pence was his running mate in July of 2016. For now, he's just dropping hints about his pick. When asked in a March 14, 2024 Newsmax interview if he's started to rule candidates out, Trump replied: "Yeah, I probably have a couple of people that you may know very well. Some people that I didn't think behaved properly. Yeah, I think I've ruled some people out, but I've ruled a lot of people in."

Here's a list (which we'll keep updated) of who is believed to be on Trump's shortlist for vice-president, and the pros and cons of each possibility, loosely arranged from the candidates with the best odds to the worst.

This post has been updated throughout.