Ranked-Choice Voting Loses Everywhere Except Alaska
11/21/2024 03:10 PM
For a while there, the electoral reform known as ranked-choice voting (or as some call it, instant runoff voting) had some momentum. The idea was that traditional first-past-the-post general elections often disenfranchise popular majorities and promote major-party hegemony along with partisan and ideological polarization. Often combined with the abolition of party primaries (replaced by nonpartisan primaries that let four or five candidates proceed to general elections), the reform idea broke into public view via successful ballot initiatives in two states (Maine and Alaska) and a variety of localities (notably New York City and San Francisco). Often, if not always, RCV has been opposed by leaders in both major political parties, who are loathe to endanger their duopoly, and backed by wealthy good-government types and those representing ideological minorities. But it's safe to say the bitterest opponents of RCV recently have been conservative Republicans who view the system as a way to eliminate their veto power over GOP general-election candidates.
RCV proponents hoped that 2024 was going to be a breakthrough year for their movement, with statewide ballot initiatives to introduce the system on the ballot in four states (Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada — with Nevada having already approved an initiative earlier but requiring a second approval for enactment). But at the same time, conservatives sponsored anti-RCV ballot measures in Alaska (aimed at repealing the RCV-Top 4 Primary system voters approved in 2020) and in Missouri (a constitutional ban on RCV for the state and for localities, though with an effective date that would allow St. Louis to continue to use RCV).
In keeping with the national rightward trend on November 5, the new statewide RCV ballot measures all lost (by a 54–46 percent margin in Colorado, a 53–46 percent margin in Nevada, a 70–30 percent margin in Idaho, and a 58–42 percent margin in Oregon). Meanwhile, Missouri voters approved the proposed ban on RCV by a robust 68–32 percent margin.
Arguably, the most important ballot battle was in Alaska, where RCV (with a Top 4 nonpartisan primary) was utilized in 2022 and was widely credited with making possible statewide victories by centrist Democrat Mary Peltola (running for the state's open at-large House seat) and centrist Republican Lisa Murkowsi (an incumbent senator running for reelection), both of whom defeated Trump- and state-GOP-backed conservatives. To underline the upheaval the new electoral system represented, Peltola and Murkowski (who shared a base in Alaska's large Native population) endorsed each other. Peltola's defeated opponent, Sarah Palin, spearheaded a drive to repeal the system that undid her comeback bid. A repeal measure was on the 2024 ballot and looked to be succeeding on Election Night. But final returns showed RCV surviving by 664 votes out of 340,110 cast.
This RCV victory didn't carry over to prior beneficiary Peltola, who narrowly lost her seat to Republican Nick Begich III (who finished third in the 2022 balloting), helping the GOP maintain control of the House. But it was very good news for Murkowski, the maverick Republican who is up for reelection in 2028. If she chooses to stick around, Alaska's system gives her a fighting chance to win, while she'd be toast (Donald Trump really dislikes her, and she has committed multiple heresies against MAGA conservatism) in a traditional party primary. Perhaps RCV opponents in the state will try again to repeal it, but usually once voters learn to navigate RCV, it becomes less controversial. In the meantime, national supporters of this election reform will lick their wounds and perhaps find a way to regroup.
