'Wicked' Hopes to Turn Its Massive Marketing Campaign Into a Box Office Windfall

11/19/2024 02:30 PM

Seven months ago at CinemaCon in Las Vegas, Universal capped off its presentation to movie theater owners with a colorful LED light show featuring thousands of flowers handed out to audience members and set to an instrumental version of "Defying Gravity," the musical number in the first installment of Jon M. Chu’s two-part adaptation of the Broadway classic "Wicked."

That screening kicked off a global, no-expense-spared, nine-digit marketing campaign that Universal hopes will turn "Wicked" into one of the biggest box office hits of the year — and perhaps in doing so buck the trend of movie musicals either flaming out in theaters or having to hide their musical numbers to win over a wider audience.

Early signs point to "Wicked" doing just that. Pre-release projections point to an $80 million-plus opening weekend in the U.S. against a reported $145-160 million budget. That puts it in a similar range to the $82.5 million opening of "Dune: Part Two" back in March, a film that, while very different to "Wicked," grossed $282 million domestic and $714 million worldwide.

Exhibitor sources also tell TheWrap that optimism is high for "Wicked," which is enjoying robust presales and already getting major Oscar buzz after its Los Angeles premiere last week and several industry screenings since. If the optimism proves well-founded, it will be quite the rebound for Chu after the last film he directed, "In The Heights," ended up being one of the big busts of a recovering box office in 2021, despite rave reviews.

"I don’t think we’re in Washington Heights anymore"

Of course, "Wicked" has a lot going for it that "In The Heights" didn’t. For starters, it’s based on a 2003 Broadway musical that is far more well known — "In The Heights" couldn’t drum up moviegoer interest outside of New York and Los Angeles off of its rave reception and connection to "Hamilton" creator Lin-Manuel Miranda.

The "Wicked" musical is based off one of the most famous books and films of all time — "The Wizard of Oz" — which has made phrases like "ruby slippers," "yellow brick road" and "not in Kansas anymore" permanent parts of the cultural lexicon. A great number of moviegoers may know the songs from "Wicked," but even more know who the Wicked Witch of the West is.

And by being set in the magical world of Oz, "Wicked" offers a level of jaw-dropping fantasy that even Chu’s colorful depiction of New York in "In The Heights" can’t match. With ornate costuming and massive practical sets used whenever possible, "Wicked" promises the sort of big screen spectacle that often rules the box office charts.

Grande Factor

But perhaps the biggest selling point "Wicked" has going for it is global pop star Ariana Grande. Alongside her Tony-winning co-star Cynthia Erivo, Grande headlines the film as the flighty, vain, but soon-to-be heroic Glinda.

To see Grande’s drawing power, look no further than her hosting gig on "Saturday Night Live" last month, which drew 5.6 million live/same-day viewers. It’s the highest viewership "SNL" has enjoyed since 2021, topping the 5.39 million viewers that tuned in for the show’s 50th season premiere two weeks before.

That fame extends around the world, and with major competition for overseas audiences coming from Paramount’s “Gladiator II” (which made $87 million in its international launch this past weekend) and Disney’s “Moana 2” (more on that in a bit), Grande will be the major selling point for “Wicked” in countries where "The Wizard of Oz" is not a major cultural touchstone.

Grande and Erivo’s casting also makes their musical talents a natural part of the film’s appeal, leading to a marketing campaign from Universal that has touted the film’s big musical numbers like "Defying Gravity" and "Popular" in a year when films like “Wonka,” “Mean Girls” and “Joker: Folie a Deux” have kept their song-and-dance out of their trailers and digital spots with varying levels of success at the box office.

"'Wicked' is leaning hard into the fact that it is a musical, and given the source material and the talented actors they have cast, it absolutely should," said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.

Is There Room for Elphaba and Maui?

The biggest challenge for "Wicked" won’t be this weekend, but on Thanksgiving weekend, when "Moana 2" arrives with the potential for a holiday record $135 million five-day opening.

As a sequel to one of the most-watched films on Disney+, "Moana 2" is likely to have huge four-quadrant appeal, particularly among the female and family demographics that "Wicked" needs to win over to leg out well into the winter. Perhaps both films will get such effusive word-of-mouth that they won’t box each other out for ticket sales, with moviegoers instead seeing both films over the course of Thanksgiving weekend.

Even if that doesn’t happen, what Universal is at least hoping for this weekend is that "Wicked" gets a level of audience buzz high enough to withstand the hype for "Moana 2." If that happens, there’s a possibility that even if non-"Wicked" fans opt to see a different film on Thanksgiving, they’ll be intrigued enough to double back and see the musical sometime in December.

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